Crossroads - Elections in Turkey

I bought "Clash of Civilisations" by Samuel Huntington a few months back. I really should have read it earlier since some of my peers at university had already talked about it. Anyway, what struck me was the cover has a US flag and a green crescent/star flag symbolising Islam (this is a reprint). In his book, he describes Turkey as a 'torn' country meaning that while it is predominantly a single culture in one civilization it's leaders want to shift it to another civilization. In other words, they are saying "We are one people and belong together in one place but we want to change that place" (p138). Mustafa Kemal Ataturk began this transition by first expelling and killing Greeks and Armenians and then establishing a Western style republican system of government. Strangely enough, the dispossessed/murdered Greeks and Armenians had been living in Turkey for nigh on 2000 years, well before any Turkic peoples had migrated to Anatolia.

He states that sooner or later Turkey will come to a crossroads in it's history. A time when a decision must be made in which direction of a possible three the country should be going. Huntington's first road is the one towards Europe. The second is towards the Muslim nations of the Middle-East. And the third is be the central country of a Turkic league of nations.

The road to Europe seems the least likely as Turkey has been trying for years to become a member of the EU but to no avail. Publicly, the EU blames Turkey's poorly developed economy and poor human rights record. Privately, officials on both sides state it is because Turkey is too different and above all, too Muslim, even though Turkey has a secular government and a secular military. Incidentally, the military see themselves as the guardians of Ataturk's legacy and have several times deposed governments they deemed 'too Muslim'. Besides, Europeans have a recurring nightmare of Turkish invaders at the walls of Vienna.

As a Greek, we do not have fond memories of the Ottomans. It is in living memory that relatives were driven from Pontus on the Black Sea at gunpoint (with one death in my family at the least). Even though we were slaves for nearly 400 years our philosophical offspring did little to aid us, save for a few notable individuals. I say Ottomans as opposed to Turks because I like to think things have changed over the course of the last 500 years. Recently, Greece's stance towards Turkey has been softening as I calculate Turkey would be a much better bulwark against the East than Greece. Sad to say, there are no more Spartans left among us.

The second option is for Turkey to move towards the Islamic countries in the Middle-East. This is much more likely now that Abdullah Gul has been elected president. Gul is pro-Islamist, so much so that the military is almost waiting for his wife to wear a head covering in a government building, Ataturk's palace included. This however, will kill any chance of Turkey being accepted by the EU or the USA as a legitimate member of any trade agreements/alliances. This shift is not guaranteed to happen anyway as for many years the other Middle-Eastern countries have viewed Turkey as a betrayer of Islam going back to the days of Ataturk.

Our third option is for Turkey to emerge as the leader of a league of Turkic nations. These countries include Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as they share a similar culture and speak a similar language. This path is also fraught with it's own obstacles as any attempt to meld these countries into a new bloc will assuredly raise the ire of Russia and China. Russia because the former Soviet Union was their imperial master and China because Xinjiang (making up one sixth of the the PRC's land area) in the west has over 50% of it's population listed as Turkic peoples.

I believe this crossroads is now and all will depend on what happens in Ankara in the next few months. All I can hope for is for the Turkish people to make the best choice for thier nation. A choice that will guarantee their security as well as that of their neighbours.